The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday gave a pessimistic outlook for economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the next two years, the second similar projection in a row in 2025.
The IMF released an update to its World Economic Outlook compiled in just 10 days after US President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly all trading partners and higher rates – currently suspended – on many countries.
Across the broader MENA region, the IMF anticipated economic growth to average 2.6% in 2025, before climbing to 3.4% in 2026, representing a decrease by around 0.9 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points compared to previous forecasts.
The IMF had downgraded its growth forecast for the region last January from its October projection. According to figures from the fund, the region’s economy grew by 1.8% last year.
Within MENA, IMF projected oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Algeria and Qatar, to witness a 2.6% growth this year and 3.1% next year.
In return, in oil-importing nations such as Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, economies are projected to grow to 3.6% in 2025 and to 4.1% in 2026.
The Fund said futures markets indicate that oil prices will average $66.9 per barrel in 2025, a 15.5% decline, before falling to $62.4 in 2026.
The IMF cut the forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth in 2025 to 3% versus a January estimate of a 3.3% increase. IMF also reduced the projection for growth in 2026 by 0.4 percentage point to 3.7%.
In Iraq, the IMF expected a modest rebound in 2026, with growth forecast at 1.4%. This marks a steep downgrade from October 2024, when it had projected 4.1% growth for Iraq in 2025.
In Egypt, it saw growth coming in at a 3.8% y-o-y clip this fiscal year, up 0.2 percentage points from its January forecast.
In Morocco, IMF said the economy could grow by 3.9% in 2025 and maintain steady momentum with 3.7% the following year.
