The Turkish central bank hiked its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 46% on Thursday, in a surprise move that reversed an easing cycle and slightly boosted the lira, following market volatility in the wake of last month’s arrest of Istanbul’s mayor.
The bank also lifted its overnight lending rate again, to 49% from 46%, after having already raised it last month in an unscheduled decision following the arrest.
In addition, the overnight borrowing rate was lifted to 44.5% from 41%, underlining the hawkish reversal in monetary policy.
“Monthly core goods inflation is expected to rise slightly in April due to recent developments in financial markets,” the central bank’s policy committee said in releasing the decision, Reuters reported
Leading indicators suggest domestic demand is above projections, “suggesting a lower disinflationary impact,” it said.
“Inflation expectations and pricing behaviour continue to pose risks to the disinflation process,” the bank said, adding it would tighten further “in case a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen.”
The central bank had begun easing in December, when the rate was 50%, after an aggressive tightening effort since mid-2023 to bring down years of soaring prices and a series of currency crashes.
In a Reuters poll, ten of 13 respondents forecast the bank would maintain its one-week repo rate while three predicted a hike of up to 350 basis points. Most respondents expected the overnight lending rate would be held at 46%.
The lira strengthened slightly right after the decision and traded at 38.10 to the US dollar, while the benchmark stock index BIST 100 and banking index pared back some of its gains during the day.
Last month, the currency briefly hit a record low of 42 and stocks and bonds plunged after the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, pushing economic authorities to take several measures to ease the market fallout.
Economists expect the roughly 3% weakening of the lira to lift April and May inflation readings. Annual inflation had slowed to 38.1% in March, and was 2.46% month-on-month, lower than forecast.
Imamoglu – President Erdogan’s chief rival – is now jailed pending trial in legal moves that sparked the biggest protests in more than a decade and broad criticism of a politicised judiciary and eroding rule of law, claims the government denies.
The lira steadied near 38 to the dollar and Turkish assets recovered somewhat after the central bank sold some $50 billion since Imamoglu’s arrest to stabilise the situation, and it bought some 120 billion lira ($3.15 billion) worth of bonds.
The central bank also raised its overnight lending rate by two percentage points to 46% and paused funding through one-week repo auctions, effectively tightening funding conditions by 400 basis points.
On Thursday the bank said it will closely monitor liquidity conditions and added: “In response to the recent developments in financial markets, additional measures to support the monetary transmission mechanism were quickly put in place.”
The rate decision came amid global market turmoil caused by what has become an all-out trade war between the United States and China, with both sides ratcheting up their import tariffs.
