Three OPEC+ officials said OPEC+ was preparing for peak demand in the summer and was leaning toward restarting increased oil production in April as tensions in U.S.-Iran relations strengthened prices.
The restart could help members such as OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the UAE regain market share as other OPEC+ members such as Russia and Iran battle Western sanctions and Kazakhstan’s output is constrained by a series of setbacks.
The eight OPEC+ producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman) will meet on March 1.
Brent crude oil approaches six-month high
The eight member countries raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 3% of global demand, from April 2025 to the end of December, and froze plans for further increases from January to March 2026, citing the seasonal slump in consumption.
Benchmark Brent crude oil is trading around $68 a barrel despite speculation that oversupply will suppress prices this year. This is not far from the six-month high of $71.89 hit in January due to tensions between the United States and Iran.
All three OPEC+ sources, who declined to be named, said the eight countries that attended the March 1 meeting were leaning toward restarting production quota increases starting in April. Three other sources familiar with OPEC+’s thinking said they expected rate hikes to resume in April.
Two OPEC+ officials said no decision had been made yet and talks would continue for several weeks ahead of the March 1 meeting.
OPEC, Russian and Saudi authorities did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
seasonal demand
According to OPEC’s latest oil market forecast, demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter is expected to be 400,000 barrels per day lower than in the first three months of the year, but full-year demand is expected to be 600,000 barrels per day higher than in 2025.
Asked last week whether OPEC+ production increases would resume, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that participants expected demand to increase in the spring.
“Since around March-April, demand has gradually increased. This will be an additional factor to ensure balance,” he said.
The International Energy Agency this week revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 850,000 barrels per day, still higher than last year’s growth rate of 770,000 barrels per day.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia and other allies, supplies about half of the world’s oil.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova in Moscow and Alex Lawler and Ahmad Gadar in London; Writing by Alex Lawler; Editing by Dmitry Zhidanikov and David Goodman)
