According to Al Jazeera Capital, Saudi Aramco’s net profit after minority interests is expected to increase by 5.9% year-on-year (year-on-year) but decline by 5.5% quarter-on-quarter (quarter-on-quarter) to SAR 91.9 billion ($24.5 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Net income is expected to decrease by 9.2% compared to adjusted net income reported in the third quarter of 2025.
The decrease in adjusted net income from the prior quarter is expected to be due to a 7.4% sequential decline in crude oil prices, partially offset by a 4.3% sequential increase in production, or 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Sales were estimated at SAR 406.9 billion, down 5.1% year-on-year and 2.7% quarter-on-quarter. Upstream sales are expected to decline 7.5% sequentially. However, improved refining margins could boost downstream revenue by 1% QoQ, although chemical margins are likely to be under pressure.
The Saudi-listed oil giant’s 2026 revenue is expected to rise slightly by 0.5% year-on-year to R1.7 trillion, while its net profit is expected to be roughly flat at R371 billion.
“Our 2026 forecast is based on the assumption of an average oil price of $62.4 per barrel, which corresponds to an 8% year-over-year decline,” the brokerage said.
Total hydrocarbon production is expected to increase to 13.8 million barrels per day (mmboed), including 10.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (up 6.7% year-on-year) in 2026, partially mitigating the impact on revenue.
Al Jazeera Capital has assigned an “overweight” rating to Aramco shares and set a price target of SAR 29.6 per share.
Saudi Aramco will announce its full-year 2025 financial results on March 10th.
(Edited by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com)
