Bahrain’s economy expanded by 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, citing preliminary data.
Growth was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in non-oil activities, while oil activities declined by 3.5% over the same period, data from the Gulf nation’s Information and eGovernment Authority showed.
For 2024, Bahrain’s real total gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, according to the statement.
According to projections from the ministry, Bahrain’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, due to a 3.4% expansion in non-oil activities, coinciding with the operation of the Bapco Modernization Program.
The Bapco Modernization Program, one of Bahrain’s largest energy investments, is expected to significantly raise refinery output, bolstering fiscal revenues amid efforts to diversify the economy.
Growth is forecast to reach 3.3% in 2026, supported by a 3.9% increase in non-oil activities.
“However, the forecasts will be closely monitored and updated to account for the ongoing global uncertainty and escalating turmoil that may affect the economic projections,” the ministry said.
Last month, global ratings agency S&P Global downgraded Bahrain’s outlook to “negative” from “stable”, citing ongoing market volatility and weaker financing conditions that could increase the government’s interest burden.
Escalating trade tensions have added to global economic uncertainty, clouding macroeconomic forecasts and weighing on investor and policymaker confidence around the world.
