The yen was investors’ safe harbour of choice on Tuesday and it touched a five-month high as fears about a tariff-driven slowdown in US economic growth have rattled US stocks and the dollar.
The Nasdaq fell 4% overnight and the S&P 500 slid 2.7% as equities caught up with what bonds and currencies have been saying for weeks: US growth is going to slow down.
The yen made a five-month peak of 146.55 per dollar before steadying around 147.24. China’s yuan also rose, ticking 0.2% higher to 7.2426 per dollar, Reuters reported.
Other moves in the foreign exchange market were more muted, and analysts noted that a lot of the shifts in currencies had already happened. The dollar is down more than 7% from a six-month high it hit in January versus the yen and the greenback’s apparently dulled lustre as a safe-haven coincides with a big rally in the euro and a broader re-think of how tariffs and a trade war play out in FX markets, Reuters reported.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was a modest loser on Monday and loitered around its 50-day moving average at $0.6266 on Tuesday. Sterling was holding on above its 200-day moving average at $1.2875 and the euro was steady just above $1.08.
The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are actually stronger since US President Donald Trump hit the two countries with 25% tariffs. Europe’s common currency is riding high on German plans to borrow and spend on defence and infrastructure.
“Historically, the dollar outperforms when we get a solid rise in volatility, but when the US economy and US equity market are the central point of concern, this is now limiting the attractiveness of the dollar,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.
The turmoil in equities was triggered by a Trump Fox News interview, in which the president talked about a “period of transition,” dashing investor bets he would back away from his aggressive policies.
The dollar index, however, had a hard time rallying and was mostly flat as small rises against the Aussie and sterling were offset by losses on the yen, leaving it at 103.8.
In a week, as US bond yields have gone down and global yields rose, the gap between 10-year US and German yields has shrunk 33 basis points and the gap between US and Japanese yields has shrunk 17 bps.
Germany’s Greens vowed on Monday to block plans for a massive increase in state borrowing to revamp the military, but forwarded rival proposals in a bid for compromise and the euro handed back hardly any of its massive gains from last week.
