The dollar wobbled on Tuesday after a bruising quarter as weary investors braced for reciprocal tariffs from US President Donald Trump this week, a move that is likely to exacerbate the global trade war that has evoked US recession worries.
Investors’ focus has been firmly on the new round of reciprocal levies that the White House is due to announce on Wednesday, with details scarce. Trump said late on Sunday that essentially all countries will be slapped with duties this week.
That has left currency markets subdued as traders stayed on the sidelines awaiting clarity on Trump’s trade policies. Trump has already imposed tariffs on aluminium, steel and autos, along with increased tariffs on all goods from China.
“The second quarter may bring with it as much uncertainty and volatility for investors as the first quarter of the year,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, Rueters reported.
“To date, there has been very little clarity on what and who these tariffs will target out of the gate. Market volatility could escalate depending on what and who is targeted.”
The euro was 0.11% lower at $1.0805 after gaining 4.5% in the first quarter of the year, its strongest quarterly performance since October-December in 2022, thanks mainly to Germany’s fiscal overhaul, although some investors are sceptical of the bull run lasting longer.
The Japanese yen was a shade stronger at 149.815 per dollar on Tuesday. The yen rose nearly 5% against the dollar in the January-March period on growing bets that the Bank of Japan would hike interest rates again.
Data on Tuesday showed business sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers worsened in the three months to March, a sign escalating trade tensions were already taking a toll on the export-reliant economy and complicating the BOJ’s next move.
Beyond tariffs, a string of economic reports, including jobs and payrolls data, could shed much-needed light on how the US economy is holding up under a second Trump presidency.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials’ speeches this week also could offer clues on the path for US interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday held interest rates steady at 4.1% and said it was still cautious about the outlook, though it dropped an explicit reference to being cautious about cutting rates again.
The Aussie was mostly steady, up 0.1% at $0.6256 in a muted response to the policy decision. The currency had touched a four-week low of $0.6219 on Monday, though it eked out a 1% gain in the first quarter.
“The RBA’s statement suggests they’re inching towards their next cut, but in no rush to signal one ahead of the election or the quarterly inflation figures,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. Australia will hold a general election on May 3.
The RBA delivered its first rate cut in over four years in February but has since adopted a cautious tone on further easing, with Governor Michele Bullock and other top policymakers downplaying the likelihood of multiple cuts.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six rivals, was flat at 104.23. Sterling last fetched $1.2916, while the New Zealand dollar was at $0.56755.
