The dollar hovered near a five-month low against major peers on Monday, bruised by President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies and soft economic data, at a time when other currencies, including the euro, benefit from domestic drivers.
The euro was last at $1.0905, up 0.2% on the day, and heading back towards the $1.0947 it hit last week, its highest since October 11.
The Japanese yen was also marginally stronger on the day at 148.48 per dollar, again after hitting its strongest in five months last week at 146.5 to the dollar.
That left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against its six major counterparts, at 103.5, just off its five-month trough of 103.21 reached last Tuesday, Reuters reported.
Currency markets have undergone a shift in recent months, as traders re-evaluate their initial expectations that Trump’s economic policies would both support the dollar and cause other currencies to weaken.
In fact the reverse has happened, and analysts at Societe Generale said on Monday that they had changed their currency forecasts “to reflect Germany’s planned fiscal changes, the US economy’s self-inflicted (relative) fragility, and Japan’s escape from deflation”.
They see the euro at $1.13 by year-end and the yen at 139 per dollar.
