Reuters/Leah Millis
Turkey must match EU tariffs
New US tariffs coming in April
Turkey-US trade worth $32bn
Turkey’s customs entanglement with the European Union (EU) makes it vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs from the United States in the months ahead.
The White House has collated a “dirty 15” list of countries which it alleges maintain unfair levies on goods and substantial trade surpluses over the US. They are expected to be the first in line when US officials announce new tariffs on April 2.
Turkey is not among them, having registered a modest trade imbalance in 2024, with $15 billion of US imports and $17 billion worth of exports to America, according to US Trade Representative data.
But the EU is second on the list after China. The bloc recorded a surplus of $236 billion, and has been a frequent target of President Donald Trump’s protectionist rhetoric.
That is a problem for Turkey because it maintains a 30-year-old customs union with the bloc which requires it to match EU tariffs, according to Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.
“When the EU decides to retaliate, and it will, against US tariffs, Turkey will have to apply the higher rates that the EU decides on,” Lichfield said at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington DC.
That’s when Turkey might end up more prominently on Trump’s radar, he noted.
Furthermore, even if Washington and Brussels were to find a way to de-escalate, a bilateral resolution at that point would not automatically extend to Turkey.
“We need to bear in mind that, even if we reach a more positive balance between the US and the EU, let’s say in a few months, Turkey will not necessarily be privy to that deal,” Lichfield said.
During a meeting with Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan in Washington this week, US secretary of state Marco Rubio welcomed “advancements in bilateral trade and encouraged even greater economic partnership moving forward”.
But Turkey-US trade is not especially significant, standing at around $32 billion last year, and is dominated by defence and energy.
Officials from the two countries pledged during the first Trump administration in 2018 to bring the total volume to $100 billion but have only made modest progress thus far.
It was in 2018 that Trump and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan engaged in their first tit-for-tat on tariffs over a non-trade dispute.
That resulted in a significant drop in Turkish iron and steel exports to the US, and imports of US automobiles, nuts and spirits, according to data analysed by the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.
This time around, Turkish officials maintain their nation’s 54 free-trade partners around the world and role as a regional hub will help mitigate any impact from shifting US policies.
Ayşem Sargın, the deputy chair of the American Chamber of Commerce Türkiye (AmCham Türkiye), said at the Atlantic Council last week that Turkish officials to whom her group has talked to understand the impact of possible new US tariffs globally do not appear concerned.
In fact, she said, it is possible that US tariffs on the EU could present an opportunity for Turkey.
“But we haven’t gotten a direct response on what happens if there are additional measures taken by the EU that may be binding due to the customs union for Turkey as well,” Sargin said. “So that’s something to look into.”
