Despite maintaining its 2026 surplus outlook, Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil forecasts by $6 to $60 and $56, respectively, after lower-than-expected OECD inventories.
The bank now assumes that commercial inventories in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries will only build up 19% globally in 2026, compared with 27% previously, so it expects OPEC8+, part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, to start ramping up production in stages in the second quarter of 2026.
Goldman said in a note dated Sunday that it maintains its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruptions or rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine. The bank expects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 per barrel, respectively, in 2027.
Separately, Barclays said in a note dated Saturday that “oil market fundamentals are completely inconsistent with the super-oversupply narrative.”
Barclays said geopolitical tensions still posed an asymmetric upside risk to oil prices, despite rising 15% this year.
Brent and WTI futures prices both fell more than 1% on Monday as the United States and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks and fears of an escalation of the conflict eased. (or)
“A potential 12-month supply disruption of 1 million tonnes per day, equivalent to half of Iran’s oil exports, would increase the fair value of crude oil by $8,” Barclays said.
However, Goldman expects downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in Q4 2026 if possible sanctions relief on Iran or Russia accelerates landing inventory build-up, allowing higher supplies in the long term.
Intermediary/Agent
brent
WTI
Current predictions
2026
2027
2026
2027
goldman sachs
$64
$65
$60
$61
February 23, 2026
barclays
$65
$61
February 21, 2026
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
$65～$75
$60-$70
February 4, 2026
JP Morgan
$58
$57
$54
$53
November 24, 2025
macquarie
$61
–
$57
–
September 30, 2025
Commerzbank
$60
–
$57
–
November 11, 2025
goldman sachs
$56
–
$52
–
December 18, 2025
barclays
$65
–
–
–
December 11, 2025
HSBC
$65
–
$62
–
April 15, 2025
bohua
$60
–
$57
–
December 18, 2025
city
$62
–
–
–
December 11, 2025
deutsche bank
$72
–
–
–
October 13, 2025
morgan stanley
$70
–
–
January 13, 2025
UBS
$67
–
–
–
January 5, 2026
* indicates year-end forecast
# is current as of the specified date and may not indicate a revision date
(Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
