The Gulf real estate story has entered a new phase of growth, with both the residential and commercial sectors poised to expand significantly over the next five years.
A new Alpen Capital report projects that the GCC’s housing stock will grow from approximately 6.26 million units in 2025 to 7.28 million units by 2030, reflecting sustained demand from population growth, economic diversification and urban development efforts.
At the same time, the region’s office market is gearing up for significant supply expansion. Total office stock across the GCC is expected to increase from 33.3 million sq m in 2025 to 42.4 million sq m by the end of the decade. More than 65 percent of the upcoming office pipeline is concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, highlighting their central role in driving corporate expansion, investment inflows, and large-scale master developments.
housing supply
Saudi Arabia and the UAE will account for the bulk of the supply. Saudi Arabia’s housing supply is estimated to increase by 499,000 units between 2025 and 2030, reaching 3.45 million units by 2030. This growth will be primarily driven by giga projects and master-planned communities in Riyadh and Jeddah.
Over the same period, the UAE’s housing stock is expected to increase by 390,000 units to reach 1.51 million by 2030, with new homes being added with a focus on apartment-led mixed-use developments in Dubai, alongside luxury villas and waterfront communities in Abu Dhabi.
Alpen Capital’s first GCC Real Estate Industry Report says the GCC real estate market is poised to continue stable growth, with both supply and demand factors maturing, supported by ambitious economic diversification policies, sustained overseas investment, and supportive regulatory reforms across the region. It outlines the outlook for what has become one of the region’s most attractive investment categories over the past decade.
In addition to presenting a supply-side outlook, this report assesses the current market environment and provides a comprehensive assessment of the GCC real estate industry covering residential, commercial, hospitality and retail sectors. Additionally, profiles of carefully selected local real estate developers and operators are included.
Stable supply
Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director at Alpine Capital, said: “The GCC’s real estate landscape has been profoundly transformed by national objectives to diversify and build resilience. Dubai has led this change, establishing itself as a global metropolis driven by foreign capital, significant infrastructure investment and ambitious strategies.”
“In the coming years, the region’s real estate industry is expected to see stable supply across residential, commercial, hospitality and retail sectors, supported primarily by continued government spending and investment in building world-class infrastructure. Moreover, a favorable regulatory environment, high per capita income, and strong demographic fundamentals will further support the development of the GCC’s real estate industry,” said Ahmad.
“In the coming years, we expect supply and demand dynamics across the GCC to become more balanced. Large-scale developments are being phased more strategically, with a clear focus on quality, mixed-use format and demand-driven execution. We are seeing development trends shift towards master-planned, sustainable and technology-enabled communities with a focus on long-term livability. “While certain submarkets may experience oversupply pressures in the short term, well-located, high-quality projects will continue to provide investors with a broad base of high-quality assets that will maintain interest from buyers within and outside the region as key development zones reach operational maturity.”
According to Alpen Capital, the GCC real estate market is expected to experience a more disciplined expansion phase, with supply increases increasingly planned and expanding in line with demand. High disposable incomes, steady population growth, foreign inflow and favorable tax environment remain the main demand drivers across the region. The report highlights that the future development pipeline will include mixed-use projects, improved asset quality, increased sustainability, and the integration of residential, commercial, and lifestyle elements. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to account for the bulk of future supply, other GCC markets are pursuing more targeted and selective growth strategies.
commercial segment
Office supply across the GCC is estimated to grow from 33.3 million sq m in 2025 to 42.4 million sq m by 2030, with existing pipelines showing that more than 65 per cent of new supply will be in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In Saudi Arabia, commercial supply is expected to increase significantly from 7 million square meters to 13.2 million square meters during the forecast period. Additional volumes will be concentrated in Riyadh through developments such as New Muraba and KAFD, and selectively delivered in Jeddah through projects such as Jeddah Gate. In the UAE, office stock is expected to grow modestly by 910,000 square meters over the same period, with a focus on premium, sustainable and lifestyle-focused office precincts, while other GCC markets are adding supply at a controlled pace through smart, mixed-use business hubs.
hospitality department
Regarding the hospitality sector, total hotel room supply is expected to increase from 345,400 rooms in 2025 to 409,900 rooms by 2030, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the fastest growing market. This growth is expected to be driven by increased international arrivals, expanded aviation capacity, large-scale events, and destination-led development. Overall, the sector is showing a shift towards more stable revenue-generating formats, including higher occupancy rates, higher room rates and expansion of serviced apartments.
retail sector
The GCC’s retail gross lettable area (GLA) is expected to grow from 22.8 million sq m in 2025 to 27.2 million sq m by 2030, moving toward experience-driven and quality-driven advancements. Across the region, developers and landlords are prioritizing entertainment, dining and lifestyle concepts to increase foot traffic and counter the pressures of e-commerce. Mainstream malls and mixed-use destinations are expected to drive growth, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while secondary assets may face increased pressure to reposition.
Growth across the GCC real estate sector is expected to be supported by government policies that position real estate development as a strategic pillar of non-oil growth. The consistent growth in the foreign population and the influx of wealthy individuals, especially post-pandemic, are driving FDI flows and increasing demand for large-scale developments.
Favorable returns coupled with supportive regulatory reforms continue to increase investor confidence and market transparency within the industry. Additionally, significant infrastructure investments in transportation, logistics and urban systems are opening up new development routes and improving the viability of real estate assets across the segment, the report notes.
However, ongoing challenges such as high dependence on public spending and government-led mega-projects make supply pipelines susceptible to oil price fluctuations, fiscal cycles and global uncertainty. Additionally, increased financing costs due to rising interest rates may impact project feasibility and prompt a phased implementation strategy. Localized oversupply in certain markets may put pressure on prices and rents for the foreseeable future. In recent years, insurance costs have been rising in this sector as climate-related risks have increased.
new trends
Several trends are shaping the region’s real estate industry, including sustainability requirements that are becoming the norm across the GCC. Green finance is also gaining momentum, with developers and investors increasingly accessing capital through green bonds, sukuk and sustainability-related financing structures. Moreover, market activity shows a clear flight to quality, with demand concentrated on premium assets that offer strong connectivity and ESG certification. Digital transformation through PropTech and the deployment of real estate tokenization frameworks are also enhancing market transparency and access.
Overall, investment activity across the GCC remains strong but selective, with capital increasingly directed towards master-planned communities, destination-led projects and completed income-producing assets that align with the region’s long-term urban development strategy, the report said. – TradeArabia News Service
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