President Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE highlighted an important point: the US remains the indispensable external power in the Gulf.
That does not mean it is the easiest to work with, or necessarily the most satisfying relationship. But the US offers support to Gulf countries across a deeper and broader set of political, economic, technological and security considerations than any other country, China included.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia in December 2022 to great fanfare.
A lot of the commentary around the visit focused on the differences between his reception and President Biden’s from six months earlier: Xi got the purple carpet treatment and Biden got the fist bump.
But looking at the outcomes from Xi’s visit emphasises the difference in real terms. The Saudi government reported that while Xi was in Riyadh 46 MoUs and agreements were signed, valued at $50 billion. Many who don’t follow China-Gulf relations were surprised by the big numbers, but they were not unusual.
During Xi’s first visit in 2016 the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, and one outcome was regular meetings between Chinese and Saudi officials, formalised as the High-Level Joint Committee. Each round of HLJC forums resulted in similarly large numbers of lucrative MoUs and contracts.
Trump’s time in Riyadh has been far more substantial, with $283 billion worth of deals sealed and more said to be announced soon that would bring the total to over $300 billion. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that in the coming months that would increase to $1 trillion.
The numbers alone are impressive, but the types of deals are an important part of the story. The $142 billion defence agreement, the largest arms sale in US history, involves over a dozen US companies, making security cooperation between the two countries even more intertwined.
The tech and artificial intelligence projects are perhaps even more consequential.
Saudi’s DataVolt announced it will invest $20 billion into AI data centres and energy infrastructure in the US, while top US tech companies like Amazon Web Services, Google and Oracle announced investments into Saudi Arabia’s tech ecosystem, supporting its indigenous AI, cloud computing and software development industries.
Nvidia’s commitment to sell 18,000 AI chips and affiliated kit to Saudi AI company Humain is a massive boost for the country’s AI programme.
Trump’s stop in the UAE built upon Sheik Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s March visit to the US, when the Emirates committed to $1.4 trillion in investment over ten years, targeting AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy and US manufacturing.
During Trump’s visit to Abu Dhabi a reported $200 billion worth of deals were signed, including a $14.5 billion purchase of 28 Boeing aircraft for Etihad Airways.
Tech deals were another major part of the visit, with AI, data centres and cloud service agreements all signed, contributing significantly to the UAE’s digital economy.
Qatar also made massive deals with US companies, including aircraft purchases from Boeing, a quantum technology joint venture and defence deals. The total tally for now is $243.5 billion in deals, with an agreement to “generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion”.
The point in the comparison here is not to diminish what China and the GCC do together. It’s simply to point out that the relationships Gulf states have with the US are fundamentally more important.
Gulf states consider China a very important economic partner, but still recognise that there is far more to gain from denser cooperation with US defence and tech companies.
There could well be a future where that is not the case, but for the time being US companies are considered best in class. To achieve their lofty ambitions to build tech-centred post-hydrocarbon economies, Gulf countries need to cooperate with global leaders.
It is not a coincidence that AI, defence and aircraft purchases dominate the deals. These are sectors where the US enjoys advantages over China, and this series of visits from the US delegation has shown what it can do when it plays to its strengths.
Of course, China will play to its strengths as well, and it will continue to be an active player in the Middle East. Gulf countries in turn will want to pursue deeper ties to the world’s second-largest economy and a rising global power.
But this trip demonstrates that for the time being, Gulf states are not hedging their bets. The US remains their partner of choice in the issues that matter: security, investment and technological development.
Jonathan Fulton is an associate professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a non-resident senior fellow for Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative
