Sources and military analysts say Iranian drone strikes could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz for months, but it is less clear how long the Islamic Republic can sustain its missile attacks.
Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and more than 1,000 drones into Gulf states allied with the United States. Most were intercepted by air defenses, but some homes, commercial buildings, infrastructure and US military bases were damaged.
Major drone manufacturer
Tehran is a major drone manufacturer, with industrial capacity to produce around 10,000 drones a month, according to the Center for Information Resilience, a non-profit research group funded by the UK Foreign Office.
The size of the missile stockpile is unknown, but estimates range from 2,500 by the Israeli military to around 6,000 by other analysts. How much Iran has left in its arsenal could be a key factor in determining the outcome of the war. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow barrier between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes, is one of Iran’s main goals, and attacks on six Iranian ships brought shipping through the vital energy artery to a near standstill. Energy prices are soaring, with Brent crude up 12% this week and Europe’s natural gas index up about 50%.
“Iran is not going to collapse easily or quickly. Iran has the means to jeopardize the security of commercial traffic through Hormuz,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“The United States has prioritized attacking Iranian munitions, bases, and facilities that threaten the strait. But all Iran has to do is show it can attack a few tankers and the rest will be taken care of. People will never get through,” McNally said.
Missile supply is vulnerable
The former head of British intelligence agency MI6 says the supply of strategic missiles is a point of vulnerability for Iran.
“Russia is not in a position to resupply, and China will be very cautious about this,” he said, referring to members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which is made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. “If it became known that China was actually providing some kind of critical military equipment to Iran, it would have very negative implications for the GCC countries.”
Another Western source said its missile stockpile may be dwindling as Tehran had been supplying missiles to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.
Inventories also declined during the 12-day war with Israel in June, but have partially recovered, according to Israeli military intelligence.
A major limitation may be the missile’s launcher. Supplies have been cut by at least half in the last year due to attacks by Israel and the US, and have fallen further in the past five days, according to research by Britain’s CIR.
Nevertheless, Iran is likely to be able to maintain drone combat. Farzin Nadimi, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute, said the country’s latest generation Shahed-136 drone has a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers (435 to 620 miles), enough to reach anywhere in the southern Gulf Coast if launched from mainland Iran or a ship.
Many are produced in dual-purpose plants, and other facilities may also be renovated to increase production, CIR analysts said.
These drones are able to penetrate Gulf states’ air defense systems, and 65 have entered the UAE since the conflict began. They attacked Amazon data centers, Dubai International Airport, and the Fairmont Hotel. Bahrain suffered significant damage from drones to infrastructure, a US naval base, and towers housing hotels and apartments.
Mines could prolong the chaos
Oil traders are bracing for further price increases as the length of the Strait of Hormuz disruption becomes clearer in the coming days.
“We are very concerned. This risk is currently being underestimated in the oil market,” said an executive at global commodity trading company Vitol. “The prevailing theory is that Iran is using older missiles and drones first to destroy air defenses. If so, their response has not yet properly begun.”
And if it begins to run out of missiles and drones, Iran could deploy mines. According to maritime risk information firm Dryad Global, Tehran has an inventory of 5,000 to 6,000 such mines.
They can be moored to the ocean floor, propelled by rockets, or float underwater and explode on contact with ships. Analysts say there is currently no evidence of sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
“If a mine is laid, it will take a long time to deal with it,” said Cormac McCarry, director of control and risk, which focuses on maritime intelligence and security services. “So we’re going to see months of destruction.”
(Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein and Jonathan Saul in London and Andrew Mills in Doha; Editing by Alex Richardson)
