Reuters/Muath Freij
Jordan’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.7 percent in 2025 as tourism recovers and trade with Syria and Iraq starts to rise gradually, S&P Global said.
Tourism contributes an estimated 15 percent to Jordan’s GDP, with about three-quarters of it sourced from Arab visitors, including Jordanians living abroad.
“We expect the number of Arab tourists to remain relatively stable, but if the security situation in the region improves compared with 2024, the number of non-Arab tourists could rise,” the rating agency said.
Growth is forecast to gradually strengthen towards 3 percent by 2026-2027 as the economy readjusts from the shocks suffered due to regional geopolitical developments.
While the unemployment rate remained “very high” at 21 percent in 2024, the government’s reform agenda aims to spur economic activity in the medium term, prioritising job creation in the private sector.
S&P expects international financial support for Jordan to remain forthcoming, despite the US’ overall stance on global financial assistance poses risks.
The current memorandum of understanding between Jordan and the US covers 2023-2029, with the US pledging to send $1.5 billion a year in budgetary, project and military support.
The US generally disburses about $845 million in direct budgetary support to Jordan at the end of each year, which equates to about 1.5 percent of Jordan’s GDP.
“We anticipate that it will continue to do so,” the rating agency said.
Jordan retains access to a $1.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund and a $5.7 billion assistance from the World Bank. The European Union has also announced a €3 billion aid package for 2025-2027.
“We estimate that Jordan has liquid assets equal to 10 percent of GDP by the end of 2024. This gives it scope to manoeuvre in funding its budgetary deficits and repaying maturing commercial debt.”
Just over $5 billion of government debt is set to mature, with a further $7.3 billion due in 2026, S&P said.
