OPEC on Monday revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day, a copy of its monthly report showed, the third consecutive downward revision. The producer group continues to see a smaller impact on consumption than other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency since the outbreak of the Iran war. OPEC said the global economy could improve for the remainder of this year and raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027.
The war effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes, for months, curtailing millions of barrels of Middle Eastern oil production. Production has begun to recover following an interim peace agreement between Iran and the United States, but new military attacks have reignited concerns about shipments.
“Global economic growth momentum remains broadly resilient in the first half of 2026,” OPEC said in a report posted on its website.
“Further stabilization of energy markets and trade flows could ease geopolitical tensions and provide some upside to global economic growth in the second half of 2026.”
The current outlook lowers oil demand growth this year from the previous estimate of 970,000 barrels per day. OPEC expects oil demand to increase by 1.94 million barrels per day in 2027, an increase of 210,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast.
OPEC+, which brings together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume production increases from April, but the Hormuz shutdown has made it impossible to raise production to the agreed quota level.
Citing secondary sources used by OPEC to monitor production, the report said OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, an increase of about 3 million barrels per day from May, as Gulf states began restarting production halted due to the Iran war.
May’s numbers include the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1st.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
