Rising cocoa prices could dampen cravings for Dubai chocolate

As global cocoa prices soar, the UAE’s chocolate market finds itself balancing rising production costs with evolving consumer preferences.

Yet amid these pressures, a standout success has emerged: Dubai chocolate, a locally produced, pistachio and tahini-rich bar that fuses regional flavours with indulgent international tastes.

Created by Dubai resident Sarah Hamouda when she was pregnant with her second child, versions of the confection have taken the world by storm.

Dubai chocolate has gone viral on social media, sparking long queues and strict purchase limits at high-end grocery chains abroad.

Its rise reflects a growing global appetite for products that blend traditional Middle Eastern ingredients with innovation, helping to carve out an identity for UAE-made chocolate on the world stage.

This shift toward premium offerings has proved to be a buffer against price-sensitive demand, particularly among younger demographics drawn to Instagrammable treats.

The UAE’s chocolate industry, valued at $736 million in 2024, is on a steady growth trajectory. But manufacturers remain under pressure to recalibrate pricing and product strategies in response to a volatile global commodity market.

Cocoa prices, which passed $12,500 a tonne in December 2024 because of poor harvests in West Africa, have already reshaped pricing strategies across the UAE. Between March 2024 and January 2025, cocoa costs almost doubled, part of a longer-term trend in which prices have nearly trebled since March 2023.

These rises are squeezing manufacturers, prompting them to explore new ways to remain profitable while absorbing higher production expenses.

While cocoa prices have eased in 2025 thanks to forecasts of increased production and a potential surplus, the outlook remains uncertain as international trade duties and new sustainability regulations loom.

Proposed tariffs on cocoa imports from major African producers may indirectly affect UAE-based producers, who rely on global supply chains. In addition, compliance with stricter sustainability regulations from trading partners could drive up costs over time.

Many local and global chocolate brands in the UAE focus on “premiumisation” – flavour innovation and smaller product formats to maintain profitability. The result? 

“Shrinkflation”, where chocolates slim down while price tags stay firm, has become a subtle but effective strategy to balance margins without generating consumer backlash.

Despite external challenges, demand for chocolate in the UAE remains resilient, particularly during festive and gifting occasions such as Eid and Diwali.

Manufacturers who adapt quickly to changing trends, embrace local tastes and manage cost pressures will be well-positioned to succeed in a market where tradition and trend go hand in hand.

Josh Gilbert is market analyst at the investment firm eToro

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