Dubai Airports
The world’s airlines will switch from their winter to summer schedules in a few weeks, as the clocks jump forward across Europe.
It’s always a symbolic moment for the industry, as new routes are launched and staff adjust to the latest schedules.
Unfortunately the supply chain and aircraft delivery issues which have plagued the global industry for the past two years are unlikely to disappear as we enter the summer.
But the first few days of the new season are always full of optimism, so what can we expect this year versus last?
The Middle East market is dominated by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which together are offering nearly 100 million seats between April and the end of October.
There will be a 4.3 percent increase in capacity in UAE this summer, and a 1.5 percent increase in Saudi Arabia.
With that slight advantage in percentage growth, the UAE continues to pull away from Saudi Arabia in terms of market size, although the gap will gradually close, given future aircraft orders in the kingdom.
Capacity this summer is expected to be lower in some markets compared to last year
Interestingly, Qatar is showing a slight decline in capacity. The principal carrier, Qatar Airways, has only two A350s scheduled for delivery this year, representing a relative slump before 21 aircraft are due to arrive in 2026.
With a calmer situation and lower risk profile, Israel has had several airlines return to the market, driving a 44 percent capacity increase.
This summer’s capacity is expected to be lower in some markets compared to last year, with Iraq (-48 percent) and Syria (-42 percent) particularly affected. Things can change quickly, and with aviation viewed by governments as a catalyst for economic growth, a bounce back can occur at any moment.
Capacity in Iran also appears to be down on previous years, but from experience, this is a result of the late publication of schedules by locally based airlines. Planning and travelling with a local airline in the Islamic Republic can be frustrating, to say the least.
Dubai-owned Emirates Airlines is the largest in the region, offering 22.4 million seats this summer. However, Saudia, the kingdom’s national carrier, is closing the gap, with nearly 7 percent growth expected.
Saudia is certainly raising its service game: in February, the airline had an on-time performance of 87 percent, beating Emirate’s 82 percent.
While these two airlines compete for regional dominance, Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi is pursuing ambitious growth, and aiming for an 18 percent increase in capacity.
Intriguingly, the 10th largest airline operating in the region will be IndiGo, an Indian low-cost airline that is set on a rapid expansion path.
Several new regional routes are driving growth in markets such as Poland, Austria and Italy.
Etihad Airways is nearly doubling its capacity to Milan Malpensa, marking a major boost for its Italian operations.
Royal Jordanian is expanding with new services to Bologna and Catania, while Saudia is set to launch a Riyadh-Venice route, backed by the Air Connectivity Programme (ACP).
LOT Polish Airlines is rebuilding its presence in the region, with much of its capacity focused on Tel Aviv. However, the airline is also increasing seats on its Riyadh-Warsaw service this summer, probably supported by funding from the Saudi ACP.
In the Riyadh-Dubai sector, the number of seats on offer is expected to be 5 percent down on last summer, which will make the rush for Thursday evening travel even more competitive amongst regular travellers, although more capacity on the Jeddah route will be welcome.
For all airlines, one of the constant dilemmas is whether to add new routes or add frequency. The new destinations option wins more frequently than you would expect.
This summer will bring more than 136 new routes across the region, ranging from the new Edinburgh service by Emirates to a new IndiGo service from Cochin in Kerala, India, to Ras Al Khaimah.
But perhaps the most interesting new service will be the Wizz Air services from Jeddah and Medina to London Gatwick.
Summer 2025 is shaping up to be promising for all major airlines. But, as is always the case in aviation, the unexpected can change things in an instant – so here’s hoping for a smooth ride over the next seven months.
John Grant is a partner at the UK consultancy Midas Aviation
