Securing the Strait of Hormuz from mines could delay the return to normal shipping traffic by weeks after an agreement to reopen the waterway, shipping and coast guard officials say.
The operation, which involves traditional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones, could last 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping and oil companies feel confident enough to proceed, according to an assessment by five Western maritime security officials.
This could store tens of millions of barrels of oil, on top of oil supplies from the Gulf that have already been cut off since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, according to estimates based on pre-war spills.
Every barrel exported from the Gulf is crucial given that the world’s largest economy’s stockpiles are heading for their lowest levels since at least 2003, according to an analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration last week.
Shipping officials continued to urge vigilance after the United States and Iran announced on Sunday that they had reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the strait, even though Iran and the United States have been secretly helping ships pass through the blocked waterway in recent weeks.
“We believe it remains extremely dangerous for ships to begin transiting at this time,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO.
“The mine threat in this region is of immediate and future concern, and there is a need to establish mine-free routes.”
Guarantees required by shippers
It is unclear how many mines Iran had planted in the strait, which handled 20% of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas before the war.
Iran, which has sought to assert control of the waterway during the war, has threatened to deploy naval mines without commenting on whether its forces have planted mines.
The United States called the mines dangerous and said they were targeting Iranian mine-laying vessels.
On June 2, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that Iran had mined in “Hormuz, a large part of the high seas,” without providing details.
The German Navy said in a June 11 statement, citing information from the U.S. and British navies, that the mines were planted in four locations around the Channel, adding that Germany could not confirm where the mines were placed.
Even the possibility of landmines could deter companies from taking action. With the supertanker and its cargo of crude oil worth about $300 million, war risk insurers, oil companies and tanker companies will need assurances that navigation is safe before attempting to transit the strait, shipping industry officials said.
“One mine strike is enough to cause a death,” said Rene Koford-Olsen, CEO of V. Group, the world’s leading technical ship and crew management specialist, which has 13 ships stranded in the Gulf.
“This is clearly a huge problem for global shipping,” he said.
Transport volume remains low
In response to questions about the number and location of mines planted last week, a spokesperson for the U.S. military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said the details could not be publicly discussed for operational security reasons.
“U.S. military efforts continue to completely clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
On May 30, Oman’s Maritime Safety Center issued a warning to sailors navigating the strait after reports of sightings of “objects believed to be floating mines.”
Oman’s Ministry of Information did not respond to requests for comment.
As Iran and the United States negotiate an interim agreement to end the war, both sides have allowed some ships to leave the strait.
US President Donald Trump said last week that the US was leaving millions of barrels of oil, and Reuters reported in May how some states were making deals with the Iranian government to secure passage for ships.
The number of ships passing through the strait has increased to an average of 12 to 15 a day in recent weeks, according to shipping data that confirms ships become visible after leaving the strait. But this is just a fraction of the 120 to 140 ships that passed through this waterway every day before the war.
landmine threat
According to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, in March, before the cease-fire agreement between the US and Iran became tenuous, Iran’s National Defense Council said that any attempt by “enemies” to target Iran’s coasts and islands would lead to the mining of access routes and communication lines across the Gulf.
The report said countermeasures include different types of naval mines, including floating mines that can be launched from the coast.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Britain, France and Germany have all sent warships and minesweepers to the Middle East in anticipation of possible mine-clearing operations.
Cory Lansrem, CEO of maritime security organization Dryad Global, said Iran is estimated to have up to 1,000 sea mines despite the US attack aimed at destroying Iran’s military capabilities, including minelayers and stockpiles.
“If a minefield is discovered, it can take weeks or months to eliminate the threat,” he said.
Arsenio Dominguez, head of the United Nations Maritime Agency, on Monday welcomed the agreement to reopen Port of Hormuz as “an important step towards restoring safety to this vital maritime corridor for seafarers and ships.”
“However, its implementation will take time to ensure that all necessary safety and security guarantees are in place,” he said.
(Reporting by Jonathan Saul and Sabine Siebold; Additional reporting by Michelle Rose, John Irish, Renee Maltezou, Parisa Hafezi and Andrew Mills; Editing by Rachel Armstrong and Aidan Lewis)
