As President Trump arrives in Riyadh for the first leg of his Arabian Gulf tour, there is a real expectation in the Saudi capital that something big is about to happen – but few know exactly what it will be.
In the limited time he has in the kingdom, with a scheduled meeting of GCC leaders and trips to Qatar and the UAE also to be slotted in to the tight three-day schedule, Trump will want to pin down the details of Saudi investment in the US under his administration, have quiet discussions about the Iran nuclear talks that ended in Oman at the weekend, and see how the US and Saudi Arabia can further align policy in global energy markets.
It is hard to find anybody who can predict with any confidence what the big headline will be from the visit – though all are certain there will be one extravagant photo opportunity that will come to symbolise the trip.
Trump’s itinerary, as determined by the schedule shared with American journalists travelling with him, will largely be concentrated in a relatively small area of western Riyadh.
From the Al Yamama Palace (the official workplace of King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman and the Royal Court bureaucracy) Trump will travel to the Ritz Carlton hotel and conference centre (where the Saudi-US Investment Forum is being staged), and on to dinner at the historic Ad Diriyah area – where the kingdom will no doubt proudly show off arguably the most successful of the giga-projects of Vision 2030.
But most of the business-oriented news is likely to come from the Ritz Carlton event.
Judging by the programme for the day, the forum will be a “who’s who” of the kingdom’s business and policymaking elite, like investment minister Khalid Al Falih and Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, as well as leading US financiers such as Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of Blackrock and Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup.
Other notable attendees from the red-hot US technology sector include Alex Karp, founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies, and the White House AI and crypto “czar” David Sacks. Although not shown on the official list, it would be surprising if Tesla boss Elon Musk did not put in an appearance.
The forum is organised around eight key sectors, from energy to education, and takes in all of the core aspects of the US-Saudi relationship in the course of the day, including finance, AI, defence and mineral resources.
These are all areas where there is an overlapping commonality of interest between Saudi Arabia and Trump’s US, and where big deals could be announced.
There will be special panels on two subjects that are of special immediate interest: the forthcoming Saudi World Cup in 2034 (the US will host the event in 2026) and the Riyadh Expo2030, in which the US is expected to play a big part.
The big set pieces come towards the end of the day at the Ritz Carlton complex, in the form of three sessions that will probably involve the crown prince and the president on stage together: a “special welcome” to leadership, the announcement of bilateral agreements, followed by a “leadership address”.
The forum takes place in the same venue as the annual “Davos in the desert” extravaganza – the Future Investment Initiative gathering – and will probably follow the carefully choreographed formula of that event. You would think the level of gilded opulence at the hotel will be to the president’s taste.
It will undoubtedly be newsworthy, but not contentious. Any potentially tricky issues between the US and Saudi Arabia – Gaza and Israeli “normalisation”, future oil policy, US investment flows into the kingdom, for example – will likely be discussed face-to-face behind closed doors at Al Yamama.
A couple of months ago some US observers had been expecting a significant realignment on global oil policy, with a move to cordinate policy between the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. This seems to have been put on the backburner by Russian “tapping along” over Ukraine peace talks.
But given the mutual appreciation by Trump and the crown prince for big historic announcements, with details to follow, it would be wise not to rule anything out.
Frank Kane is Editor-at-Large of AGBI and an award-winning business journalist. He acts as a consultant to the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia
