Turkish stocks jumped on Monday, bonds climbed and the lira rallied against the euro as news the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group was ending its four decade-long insurgency in the country added to US-China trade cheer.
Global share markets were enjoying a strong surge after the US and China agreed to slash tariffs, but Turkish equities outstripped most other bourses as they jumped more than 3%.
A PKK member said it was ceasing all military operations “immediately” following the group’s decision to disband, a move that could boost NATO member Türkiye’s political and economic stability.
The lira was up 1.3% against the euro and steady against the dollar, while its international market bonds, which have been losing ground for the last six months, were up nearly 0.7 cents.
The PKK decision followed an appeal from its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan in February to disband. It is set to have far-reaching political and security consequences for the region, including in neighboring Iraq and also in Syria, where Kurdish forces are allied with US forces.
Omer Celik, spokesperson for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, said the PKK’s decision to dissolve was “an important step toward a terror-free Türkiye”.
There have been intermittent peace efforts over the years, most notably a ceasefire between 2013 and 2015 that ultimately collapsed.
The PKK’s move should now give Erdogan the opportunity to boost spending in the mainly Kurdish southeast of Türkiye, where the insurgency has handicapped the regional economy for decades.
Analysts welcomed the PKK move but added a note of caution.
“It can only be good news,” said Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA & Global Political Research at investment advisory firm TS Lombard. “But is it decisive for the difficult Turkish investment case?”
He said the PKK issue was ultimately “secondary” to questions about Türkiye’s recent arrest of Erdogan’s main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and the broader direction of its macroeconomic policy.
Those concerns have weighed on Turkish markets this year.
MSCI’s Türkiye equities index is down more than 13% compared to a near 8% rise in its pan-emerging market index., while lira-denominated government bonds have cost investors more than 8% on a total returns basis.
The cost of insuring Ankara’s government debt using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) has also shot up, although Monday’s rally saw that ease back.
“A continuation of the pullback (in CDS levels) … may support banking stocks, which have been the negatively differentiated sector in BIST (Turkish stocks index) in the last 2 months,” Garanti BBVA Yatirim’s Director Ozgur Yurtdasseven said.
Turkish banking stocks were up 3.8% on the day, but remain more than 16% down on the year in lira terms and more than 20% in dollar terms.
