Shutterstock/Shealah Craighead
While investors in Europe and Asia are treading water, the Arabian Gulf is diving headfirst into America Inc.
The United Arab Emirates has committed $1.4 billion to a decade-long investment surge in the US. Saudi Arabia is considering a $1 trillion commitment, reportedly high on the agenda when President Donald Trump visits the kingdom in the coming weeks.
These are not speculative punts. They are strategic, long-horizon bets being made at a moment when much of the financial world is skittish about US prospects.
Wall Street has been rattled by a mix of political whiplash and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 is down 4 percent for the year. The dollar has lost similar ground against most major currencies.
Trade war rhetoric, foreign policy zigzags and renewed concerns over debt and inflation have left many global investors on edge.
Some pundits are wondering if the age of American exceptionalism, the idea that the US can reliably outperform the global economy, is finally coming to an end. The Gulf’s answer is: not yet.
Rather than retreat, Gulf sovereign wealth funds and state-backed giants are doubling down. They are not chasing quick wins in equity markets or currency trades, but instead pouring capital into artificial intelligence, energy, infrastructure and high-end real estate.
These are the sectors that built America’s economic edge and ones in which Gulf investors have huge ambitions.
While Gulf leaders remained officially neutral in last year’s US election, it was no secret where their sympathies lay
Ask a fund manager in Paris or Frankfurt about US fundamentals and the mood is cautious, if not downright gloomy. Ask their counterparts in Riyadh or Abu Dhabi and you’ll hear confidence – even enthusiasm.
Gulf investors are thinking beyond the short-term noise. They are looking at fundamentals, alignment and opportunity, and acting on that formula.
There is also political logic behind the financial flow. While Gulf leaders remained officially neutral in last year’s US election, it was no secret where their sympathies lay. Trump’s positions on Iran, hydrocarbons, regional security and transactional diplomacy mirror Gulf priorities.
Now “their man” is back in the White House with a commanding electoral mandate, it makes perfect sense that Gulf states would back him with their enormous capital reserves.
The fit is more than ideological. Trump’s deal-centric approach to global affairs resonates in Gulf boardrooms. This is a region where business is closely aligned with state strategy and where the largest investment vehicles, such as Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, are viewed as instruments of strategic economic diversification.
At the recent CERAWeek energy summit in Houston, Gulf leaders made their intent clear. Adnoc’s chairman, Sultan Al Jaber, and the Aramco CEO, Amin Nasser, pledged to deepen US investment, drawing applause from US energy executives and policymakers alike.
In Trump’s America, the Gulf sees a partner who speaks their language on almost every topic.
The US carries its fair share of risk. The political landscape remains volatile. Trade tensions with China are flaring again. The national debt is climbing into uncharted territory. Challenges to the independence of America’s institutions – judicial, regulatory and financial – are raising eyebrows in traditional investor circles.
But from a Gulf perspective, those risks are outweighed by the rewards. Europe, for all its talk of stimulus and strategic autonomy, still looks like a slow-growth zone. China, while brimming with opportunity, carries rising political and regulatory uncertainty.
The US still offers scale, depth and innovation, despite the drama. It is also the home of sectors the Gulf has long prized. AI and frontier technology are booming. Energy is experiencing a generational transition. Real estate, especially in high-growth cities, remains a core Gulf play.
China is catching up fast in areas such as AI (see DeepSeek) and electric vehicle technology (think BYD), but it has not cracked the high-end property market in the way the US has.
This is not a zero-sum strategy. Gulf states will continue investing across Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America. Their long-term investment plans are geographically diversified.
But the renewed focus on the US is both economic and geopolitical. Strategic capital buys influence and proximity to decision-making power.
There are risks to this approach. The financial wobbles of Trump’s early months could be a prelude to deeper systemic shocks. If the president’s confrontational approach to global trade intensifies, Gulf states may be asked to take sides, something they have always sought to avoid.
The Gulf might also feel the need to invest more at home in economic diversification plans, already under financial pressure in places.
Still, the Gulf knows how to hedge. Its investors are used to navigating volatile waters. In Trump’s America, they see not chaos, but opportunity.
Frank Kane is Editor-at-Large of AGBI and an award-winning business journalist. He acts as a consultant to the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia
