Reuters/Daniel Kramer
So, to Houston, Texas, for arguably the biggest event in the energy calendar: CERAWeek, the annual gathering of the world’s elite in oil and gas and – whisper it softly in the heartland of Big Oil – some renewable and alternative fuel sources too.
Sometimes called “the oil man’s Davos”, CERAWeek 2025 is undoubtedly the place to be, with a US president pledging to “Drill, baby, drill” and rapidly shifting geopolitics potentially impacting all aspects of the global energy business. And, of course, there is still that minor thing called “global warming” hanging over us.
All those weighty issues will be skillfully negotiated by Daniel Yergin, who founded the event in the 1980s and who is still – as vice chairman of S&P Global (which now owns the conference) – indefatigable in his management of the event. From the crack-of-dawn breakfast meetings to early-hours nightcaps, Yergin runs the CERAWeek show.
I’ve been to several in the past, but the 2025 version promises to be even more demanding than usual. It gets off to a brisk start on Day 1 with a first “leadership dialogue” chaired by Yergin from the main hall at the Hilton Americas hotel in the city’s plush downtown, with Chris Wright, President Trump’s new secretary of state for energy.
As you may expect from a climate change-denying president in league with the oil lobby, Wright will no doubt be playing to the MAGA wing by “unleashing the golden era of American energy dominance” (Trump). But the oil executives inside will want to hear something other than Oval Office slogans.
How can Sultan Al Jaber live with the lower oil prices threatened by US policy?
Others in Trump’s administration have spoken of a target of an extra 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from US fields, bringing output to an eye-watering 16 million bpd, but it is the people in the room – Exxon, Chevron, Occidental – who will actually have to pump those barrels profitably.
They will be acutely aware of the depleting status of easily accessible crude from US shale fields, and the rising financial cost of extracting it. How can they assist Trump in his “energy dominance” dream when the president also wants to see prices at the gas pump well below where they are today?
The sums just don’t add up for the oil companies, much as they would no doubt like to stay in the president’s good books.
Next up on the Yergin stage on the first morning is an oil man who also has financial matters on his mind. Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of the world’s biggest quoted oil company Saudi Aramco, has just cut its special performance dividend as lower crude volumes and prices in 2024 weigh on profits and cash flow.
Saudi Arabia, which has borne the brunt of the cuts in global crude volumes as part of the Opec+ alliance, is as keen as ever to maximise oil revenue, but it also wants stability in global crude markets.
Hence the recent decision – along with Russia and the rest of the Opec+ group – to bring barrels back to the market from next month. But it will be intriguing what Nasser has to say about the “Drill, baby, drill” philosophy, which can only reduce crude prices further, even as Saudi Arabia stays well within its maximum capacity.
The Arabian Gulf viewpoint will also be on display the morning of Day 2, when Dr Sultan Al Jaber, chairman of UAE oil company Adnoc, is next up in the Yergin hotseat.
The UAE has plenty of spare capacity. Its stated aim is to get to 5 million bpd as soon as possible, and it too has been held back by Opec+ discipline. Al Jaber will be pleased that the country’s bigger quota kicks in from next month, but how can he live with the lower oil prices threatened by US policy?
At the back of everybody’s mind will be the subject of US relations with Russia (not represented officially at CERAWeek, but who knows?) and the effect rapid rapprochement will have on global oil flows.
There is some speculation that Trump himself will put in an appearance, or at least deliver a video address, which could provide some answers, or at least some fireworks.
With all that going on, it’s going to be hard to find any free time, but I am determined to spend at least one evening at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, taking place at the same time as CERAWeek, as the best place to take the pulse of Trump’s America.
Full report next week. Yeehaaw!
Frank Kane is Editor-at-Large of AGBI and an award-winning business journalist. He acts as a consultant to the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia and is a media adviser to First Abu Dhabi Bank of the UAE
